经济制裁的理论探析：从传统分析方法到冲突预期模型 

万筱萱 

大连理工大学，辽宁省大连市，116024； 

摘要：本文回顾了经济制裁的定义、目标及其有效性的研究，分析了两种传统的经济制裁研究理论，即国内政治 分析法和信号分析法，并探讨了 21 世纪以来兴起的经济制裁研究模型——冲突预期模型。在回顾传统理论的基 础上，本文重点分析了冲突预期模型在经济制裁中的应用，梳理了其逻辑基础，并讨论了该模型如何为理解经济 制裁的动因与效果提供新的视角。通过对现有文献的总结，本文旨在为未来经济制裁的理论创新与实证研究提供 参考。 

关键词：经济制裁；国内政治法；信号分析法；冲突预期模型 

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作者简介：万筱萱（2000年7月—），女，汉族，湖北省麻城市，在读硕士研究生，研究方向：美国文化与外交